After Matchday 3 of 2025-2026 UEFA Champions League, Opta used their supercomputer to make a prodiction of different clubs' probabilities of winning the title this season, and the results are as follows.
Winning Probabilities of UCL by Opta
1. Arsenal
Winning Chances: 21.13%
Chances of Reaching Quarter Finals: 79.27%
2. PSG
Winning Chances: 14.03%
Chances of Reaching Quarter Finals: 72.89%
3. Liverpool
Winning Chances: 12.31%
Chances of Reaching Quarter Finals: 65.59%
4. Man City
Winning Chances: 12.12%
Chances of Reaching Quarter Finals: 67.86%
5. Bayern Munich
Winning Chances: 9.33%
Chances of Reaching Quarter Finals: 64.91%
6. Barcelona
Winning Chances: 5.65%
Chances of Reaching Quarter Finals: 51.19%
7. Real Madrid
Winning Chances: 5.48%
Chances of Reaching Quarter Finals: 56.86%
8. Chelsea
Winning Chances: 5.43%
Chances of Reaching Quarter Finals: 50.34%
9. Inter Milan
Winning Chances: 4.91%
Chances of Reaching Quarter Finals: 54.44%
10. Newcastle
Winning Chances: 3.51%
41.55%
11. Dortmund
Winning Chances: 1.34%
Chances of Reaching Quarter Finals: 31.04%
12. Spurs
Winning Chances: 1.05%
Chances of Reaching Quarter Finals: 24.52%
13. Atletico Madrid
Winning Chances: 0.84%
Chances of Reaching Quarter Finals: 17.62%
14. Sporting CP
Winning Chances: 0.52%
Chances of Reaching Quarter Finals: 16.04%
15. Napoli
Winning Chances: 0.35%
Chances of Reaching Quarter Finals: 13.09%
16. Atalanta
Winning Chances: 0.33%
Chances of Reaching Quarter Finals: 12.01%
Which club has performed as you expected? Which club has not performed at its best in this season's Champions League? Which club do you think will be crowned champions? Share your thoughts in the comments section.