With the aggregate tied up at 1-1, it is all to play for with the winner booking their place in Budapest for the Champions League Final 2025/26 as Arsenal welcome Atletico Madrid to the Emirates Stadium
The deciding leg awaits at the Emirates Stadium as Arsenal welcome Atletico Madrid with both sides equally poised after last week's clash at the Metropolitano. The bookies are placing the Gunners as the clear favourites for this match at 4/7 with BetGoodwin while Atletico are 9/2 with William Hill and a draw to take it extra-time is 3/1 with Betfair.
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The first leg in Madrid — a game dominated by three penalty calls — finished 1-1, leaving Mikel Arteta’s side with a slight edge heading into their biggest European occasion in 20 years. Arsenal would have taken a win, a draw, or even a narrow defeat at the Metropolitano, so the outcome looked acceptable on paper, even if there was clear frustration at the final whistle.
Viktor Gyokeres and Julian Alvarez both converted from the spot either side of half-time, but Arteta was left “furious” when a second Arsenal penalty was overturned after a VAR review — as Atletico boss Diego Simeone animatedly appealed behind referee Danny Makkelie. Only the officials can judge whether the Eberechi Eze–David Hancko incident met the “clear and obvious” standard, but controversy aside, avoiding defeat away in a Champions League semi-final remains a significant achievement.
Still unbeaten in this season's Champions League, Arsenal will set a new club record with a 14-match unbeaten run in the competition if they can end their two-decade wait for another final. Recent form in Europe and at home suggests they have every chance.
Arteta’s team warmed up with a comfortable 3-0 win over an illness-hit Fulham on Saturday, moving six points clear of Manchester City at the top of the Premier League after one of their most fluent performances in recent weeks. Arsenal’s record against Spanish opposition at the Emirates is also strong: just one defeat in their last 15 UEFA home games against La Liga clubs, a 2-0 loss to Barcelona in 2015-16. And it was only a little over six months ago that the Gunners thrashed Atletico 4-0 in the league phase.
That heavy defeat proved a turning point for Atletico, triggering a resurgence that briefly boosted their La Liga title hopes, but another season without silverware now looms if Simeone’s men cannot put things right in North London. They have already suffered Copa del Rey final disappointment against Real Sociedad, and their league campaign offers little jeopardy, with a top-four finish secured as Barcelona edge closer to the title.
With priorities clearly elsewhere, Simeone was able to rotate heavily for Saturday’s trip to Valencia, yet even a much-changed side — later strengthened by the introductions of Koke and Antoine Griezmann — still claimed a 2-0 win. Like Arsenal, Atletico arrive with a win-draw-win record from their last three matches, having finally steadied the ship after a brutal spring run that brought seven defeats in eight games between March 18 and April 22.
Atletico have progressed from six of their last 10 European two-legged ties after drawing the first leg at home, and a final clash at the Puskas Arena against Bayern Munich or Paris Saint-Germain would await if they can pull off another famous away performance. Simeone’s side also eliminated Arsenal in the 2017-18 Europa League semi-finals — and will be aiming to break red-and-white hearts once again.
Arsenal vs Atletico Prediction
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Arsenal vs Atletico Team News
Bukayo Saka, who had a goal and assist against Fulham, was taken off at half-time purely as a precaution ahead of Tuesday. Mikel Arteta says Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz will be available, but Jurrien Timber and Mikel Merino are out. Martin Zubimendi and Piero Hincapie are expected to return to the starting XI.
Atletico’s Julian Alvarez is also set to feature after a first-leg injury scare, where he became the fastest Argentine to reach 25 Champions League goals. Giuliano Simeone, Alexander Sorloth and Jose Gimenez are in the squad too, with only Pablo Barrios and Nico Gonzalez missing.
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