Simulations of the new 48-team FIFA World Cup format show that the group-stage qualification threshold is relatively lenient.
Mark O'Haire updated his social media, stating that he ran 100,000 simulations of the FIFA World Cup, and a clear conclusion emerged regarding the new 48-team format: it is quite lenient.
The simulation results show that teams with 6 points in the group stage have a 100% chance of qualifying; teams with 4 points have a 99.8% chance; teams with 3 points have a 67% chance; and teams with 2 points have a 5% chance.
Mark O'Haire stated that under the new format, teams with 3 points and a goal difference of -2 will most likely still qualify.