On the eve of the 30th season of MLS, recent history suggests that the Herons will not be victorious.
Inter Miami approach the 2025 season with one goal in their sights, to lift MLS Cup for the first time. This is the final guaranteed year of Lionel Messi’s two-and-a-half-year deal and, although he may choose to extend, it represents the team’s best chance at success.
But while Inter Miami dominated the regular season in 2024 and set a new MLS points record, they were poor in the playoffs and exited in the first round. They need major improvement in the postseason this time around but history is not on their side.
Last year’s MLS Cup champions LA Galaxy bounced back after failing to qualify for the playoffs in 2023. The season before, Columbus Crew did the same. In fact, four of the last five MLS Cup winners did not make the playoffs in the previous season. That does not bode well for Miami’s chances.
Is it a coincidence, or evidence of a broader trend in MLS? It’s probably a bit of both. The playoff structure with a one-game final does increase the unpredictability and this pattern may not repeat going forward.
But the tight spending restrictions on MLS, combined with the league’s position in the global game, make it very difficult for championship teams to stay together. The 2023 champions Columbus Crew lost star midfielder Jordan Morris to Middlesbrough midway through the following season, while Cucho Hernandez and Cristian Ramirez followed him out the door ahead of 2025.
The reigning champions LA Galaxy have already lost a key piece, 19-goal striker Dejan Joveljić. The Galaxy were unable to offer him a designated player contract for 2025 and Sporting Kansas City jumped at the opportunity to bring in a proven goalscorer.
So is this likely to happen to Inter Miami? Although they have lost midfielder Diego Gomez and forward Leonardo Campana, there is virtually no chance of Messi moving elsewhere midseason. The Herons may not be noticeably better in 2025, but they are unlikely to be significantly worse.