In just one week, at the heart of Paris, the Châtelet Theatre—just a few meters from Notre Dame, the site of Napoleon’s coronation—will host the Ballon d’Or ceremony organized by France Football. The magazine has gone to great lengths to preserve secrecy and suspense until the final moment. Last year, Rodri stunned the football world by beating favorite Vinicius Jr, provoking Real Madrid’s fury. Feeling slighted, the club boycotted the gala altogether.
Who is the favourite for the Ballon d’Or?
This year, competition is fiercer than ever. France’s Ousmane Dembélé enters as the favorite, but Barcelona prodigy Lamine Yamal could dethrone him. At just 18, Yamal is seen as the main threat to the PSG star, who enjoyed a dream season, establishing himself as leader of a side that finally conquered the long-awaited Champions League.
Behind the scenes, PSG has been lobbying hard to secure recognition for “the Mosquito,” wary that the presence of nine of its players among the 30 finalists could shift momentum toward the young Barça gem. The European champions have dominated the shortlist, with Dembélé joined by Neves, Vitinha, Fabián, Doué (also up for the Kopa Trophy), Mendes, Achraf, Donnarumma, and Kvaratskhelia.
The secondary awards—best goalkeeper, best young player, and best coach—also appear headed to Paris. Despite Donnarumma’s move to Manchester City in August, he remains the frontrunner for best goalkeeper. Doué, barring surprises, is set to be crowned the world’s best young player, while Luis Enrique looks unchallenged for best coach after leading PSG’s historic season—one that would have been flawless had they not lost the Club World Cup final to Chelsea. Vitinha, Achraf, and Fabián, bolstered by their exploits with Spain, are also serious contenders.
The Dembélé–Yamal showdown promises suspense. Neither will know the outcome until around 10:30 p.m. on September 22, when the world’s best player is finally revealed.
Last year, France Football was embarrassed when Rodri’s victory leaked hours before the ceremony, sparking Real Madrid’s boycott. In response, the magazine scrapped its long-standing tradition of pre-ceremony interviews with winners, determined to guarantee suspense and prevent absences from nominees tipped to miss out.
Should he win, Dembélé would become only the second Frenchman after Karim Benzema (2022) to lift the Ballon d’Or, succeeding Messi’s long reign. Yamal, meanwhile, has publicly downplayed his ambitions, saying he wants not just one trophy but several. Even so, PSG’s Champions League triumph is expected to weigh heavily in voters’ minds.
Another twist comes with the revamped voting system. The number of journalists casting ballots has been cut from 170 to 100, making the electorate more streamlined. “Individual and decisive performance” will carry greater weight than fair play or collective success—an advantage that could tilt the scales toward Yamal despite Barcelona’s European shortcomings.
The biggest novelty, however, is in gender equality: for the first time, men’s and women’s winners will receive identical recognition, a landmark step in narrowing football’s gender gap.
Paris is already dressing up for one of the most hotly contested galas in recent memory—an evening where, for once, even the eventual winner will remain in the dark until late into the night of September 22.